Vantage FX (www.vantagefx.co.uk) take a look back at the key news affecting the Forex market over the last week.
Ben Bernanke's Bond-Buying
There was a lot of action in the markets last week, the early half of the week being taken up with the G8 talks. The G8 leaders said that the global economy has weathered out the worst of the crisis, but it will not be plain sailing. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2013 from 3.5 % to 3.3%, while the growth prediction for next year is slightly higher at 4 %.
On Tuesday the euro weakened against most of the major currencies after Mario Draghi's speech in which he said that they are thinking about using alternative monetary policy tools to aid growth in the Eurozone economies.
The yen also weakened further on Tuesday after a report published by the Bank of Japan revealed that the estimate for the central bank's current account balance will increase to a record 75.5 trillion yen. Analysts predict that the yen could continue on its downward spiral as the central bank may have to employ even more stimulus. Angela Merkel voiced her concerns at the G8 talks over Japan's unprecedented bond purchasing programme.
Ben Bernanke's bond-buying was also a hot topic in the US last week. On Wednesday Bernanke stated that the Fed could taper stimulus this year and even end stimulus altogether in 2014, if the economy is in good enough shape. Analysts will be watching the US data closely for signs of economic growth, with GDP and employment figures in the limelight. Next year's GDP forecast has been increased to between 3 and 3.5 %, while unemployment is expected to drop to 6.5 %. If the upcoming figures are positive, there is a good chance that we'll see a retraction of QE.
Last week's daily sentiment index showed that the majority of traders were long Euro/Sterling and Sterling/Yen all week. While most traders were buying Euro/Dollar in the first half of the week, there was a significant shift on Thursday and Friday with a massive sell-off. Many traders began the week by ...